Old Position, New Twist

One of my favorite bridge stories occurred at the San Antonio bridge club several years ago. I was playing a contract against a very sweet but completely clueless little old lady. I needed to play AT9 of clubs opposite Kxx for no losers so I stripped the hand and put her in to break the suit for me. Without a care in the world she put the queen of clubs on the table. Ordinarily, one should play for this to be from Qxx based on restricted choice (the defense must exit an honor or you have no chance to guess the suit). In this case however, I was confident that this lady had the QJx otherwise she would never exit with an honor. I played accordingly and went down! She had found the Q play from Qxx. When I congratulated her for her excellent play she had no idea what I was talking about. She found it to be nothing more than routine.

Aaron Haspel, as an unfortunate result of being a good friend of mine, has had to suffer through that sad story dozens of times. I'm sure it was on his mind when, playing against me, he wound up in 4 with these cards:

KQ53
K75
AQ6
842

AJ972
AT9
J52
Q9

In the auction I had made a takeout double of 1 on his left and then they had a free run. On the ace of clubs lead his RHO played the jack, and I continued with king and another club which he ruffed. I had shown up with the AK of clubs and had to have the king of diamonds for my bid. Aaron now saw that the best possible way home would be to strip everything but hearts and put me in with a diamond (seem familiar?). He started by drawing two rounds of trumps, everybody following. Now he finessed against the diamond king, cashed the ace, and exited with his last one. I was in with the king and produced...the queen of hearts! Putting yourself into Aaron's seat, what would you do now? Before immediately deciding to play for split honors based on the previous story, let's think about this a little deeper.

There is a key difference between the hand in my story and the one Aaron was playing. Here there is not restricted choice on the Q, assuming I am a good defender. As I have only shown up with AK, K and have followed to 2 spades, I know that declarer has already placed me with the Q for my bid. Accordingly, with QJ I MUST play the queen, otherwise Aaron will know that I still have it in my hand. This means it's not clear what the percentage play is in hearts. To figure it out we need to calculate the number of possible QJx(x) combinations and weigh it against the number of Qxx(x) combinations. If I have 3 hearts, there are 4 QJx's possible and 6 Qxx's possible. If I have 4 hearts there are 6 QJxx's possible and 4 Qxxx's possible! Based on the club and diamond cards played, Aaron felt that I was most likely to be 2344 or 2335 making it percentage to play for Qxx(x) if I would also always exit with the Q from that holding too. But would I?

We've established that I should clearly play the Q from QJx(x), but that is not so clear from Qxx(x). Remember, I'm not looking at the T or 9 in dummy. Therefore, if Aaron had started with ATx of hearts I could get out with a low one and guarantee a set. Only getting out with the queen would give away the contract. I would have to know that Aaron has AT9 specifically to know that it's right to exit with the Q. Amazingly, I should know just that. If he had had ATx of hearts his only shot at the contract would be to find me with the QJ of hearts, and exit with 3 rounds of hearts instead of 3 rounds of diamonds. If I did have the QJ of hearts, I would be forced to lead away from the K. For Aaron's line to make any sense, he must have AT9 specifically.

After weighing these considerations carefully, Aaron did play for split honors and was right. After I gave him kudos on his nice play, he told me that it was routine.

UPDATE: It has come to my attention that my math on the number of possible QJx(x) combinations was wrong. In fact, it was perfect if there were SIX missing hearts, but there are actually 7. Brilliant! This means there are more Qxx combinations than QJx which makes Aaron's play mathematically correct even if he could not read my shape.

A Comedy of Errors

Bridge is often like a ping-pong match. Sometimes the declarer will make a play that will allow the contract to make... unless the defender finds the perfect counter... to which declarer counters... and back and fourth they go. More often, it's the opposite. A hand I played online against a couple of friends recently was exactly like this.

Vulnerable against not, I picked up QJ9642 KQ6 K 962. My partner opened 1, RHO bid 1 and I bid 1. LHO raised to 2 and partner raised to 2. I wasn't sure if he played support doubles here as he was a pick up partner, but I had an easy 4 bid either way. However, RHO butted in with 4 first. Obviously he had a shapely hand and was trying to bully us out of the hand. I bid 4, and LHO Xed. I suspected RHO had nothing and LHO didn't realize this, so I XXed. It figured to be down 1 at most which is good odds, plus the chance that RHO runs to 5. As it was everyone passed and I got the 3 of hearts lead (3/5th).

I was now playing 4XX with:

A53 7 A8732 KQJ4 opposite
QJ9642 KQ6 K 962.

Aside from dummy only having 3 spades, he had a very good hand. I was sure all the spades were on my left from the bidding though, so it looked like I had 2 trumps and 2 aces to lose. RHO won the ace of hearts and shifted to the queen of diamonds. I took it and led the queen of spades. LHO covered with the king and RHO not surprisingly showed out. Now I ruffed a diamond to shorten myself, and led a club. LHO won the ace and played another one. I was at the cross roads now. If LHO was 4342 I needed to play ace of diamonds pitching a club, ruff a diamond, cash my hearts and exit a low spade to endplay LHO. However, if LHO was 4333 I needed to cash a club, ruff a diamond, cash my hearts and exit a spade. From the carding I felt very confident that LHO was 4333, so I took the indicated line and LHO was endplayed into leading a trump into my J9.

Could the defense have done anything? Let's go back to when I led the spade queen. If LHO ducks I lose an entry to dummy. I can never ruff a heart or lead a spade to the ace or the endplay will automatically fail. So I must lead a club. Assuming LHO wins and continues clubs, I can only ruff two diamonds with my 2 club entries. In the end game I'm stuck in my hand J9x of spades opposite Ax and a diamond. Ducking a spade this time won't work as LHO can exit a spade into the stiff ace.

Now let's go back even further. My diamond king has suddenly transformed into a small one. How would I play then? I'm quite confident I would win the diamond ace and ruff a diamond immediately. Now if I lead the spade queen and it gets ducked, I lead a club again. LHO can win and lead a club, but I now ruff a diamond, cash 2 hearts and cross to dummy with a club. I've achieved the same endgame, J9x of spades opposite Ax of spades and a diamond but this time I'm in dummy. I now ruff a diamond and when LHO overruffs he is endplayed into leading away from his KT of spades. The diamond king was a mirage. Winning the ace and overtaking is actually an obvious play; hopefully I'd find it if I were playing in something more serious.

Does all this mean I was cold? Nope, if we go back even further to the point where RHO returned the diamond queen, we see that his best plan would be to attack our entries. If he plays a club and LHO continues I lose an entry. So long as LHO doesn't cover the queen of spades I am toast.

Overall just a comedy of errors.

What Could Have Been....

The spring nationals were held recently in my hometown, Dallas. I had high hopes for the tournament given my home field advantage. The event that I really wanted to do well in was the main event, the Vanderbilt.

The Vanderbilt is a knockout held at every spring NABC that attracts the best teams in the world. It is thought by many to be a tougher event than the Bermuda Bowl mainly because of the depth of the field. Just making it into the round of 8 is a huge achievement. You need a good team to do well, obviously, but I felt that my team was particularly dangerous and capable of multiple upsets. I was playing with my father as well as John Kranyak, Melanie Tucker, Agustin Madala, and Guido Ferarro. Half of our team was made up of juniors, and also included an Italian world champion and 2 national champions.

As the 27 seed, we got a bye into the round of 64. Our whole team played well and we were able to defeat a team that included Barry Rigal and Jeff Aker along with some tough Israelis. In the round of 32 we drew the 6 seed. Their team was Steve Robinson, Peter Boyd, Kit Woolsey, and Fred Stewart. This was a great team but I really felt like we had a shot.

After the first 32 boards, we trailed by 1 imp. The third quarter was a disaster, and we lost about 50 imps. Our opponents were flawless, and the amazingly aggressive preempting style that Woolsey and Stewart are known for was really paying off in the other room. They put our teammates into some impossible positions.

Now the question, what is your strategy going to be down 50 imps to such a great team with 16 boards to play? Our team talked about it, and the general consensus was just to play normal bridge and to pick our spots. Nothing crazy because that usually leads to digging yourself into a bigger hole.

The first board out we bid a non vulnerable 3N with 23 high cards and made it with no play. The second board was uneventful. Then the critical third board...

I picked up AQ AKT62 AJT963 -- with everyone vulnerable. My first thought was that this was a great hand to hold when you need a swing. There was certain to be fireworks on this board. I opened 1 which just showed 16+ points. LHO, Kit Woolsey, bid 3. So far every single time we had opened a strong club, Woolsey or Stewart had bid. Partner Xed which showed a game force with no good suit to bid. I bid 3 and partner bid 3N. The implication here was that his clubs were not great; probably not a double stopper or he would have bid 3N directly. What should I bid now?

The correct technical bid is probably 5, showing this shape and telling partner to pick a slam. I decided to hedge with 4 to keep the auction low. Partner could now show real diamond support, suggest a major to play with 4, or perhaps retreat to 4N. He bid 4 and I decided to take a shot on 7. If it was on a hook, I wanted to be there. I felt that if we were to come back from this deficit we would need a little luck. A grand between 40-60 % would be just the luck we were hoping for. Besides, it may be cold.

LHO led a very quick A and I found myself in 7 with:

J942 QJ K87 Q932
AQ AKT62 AJT963 --

I have caught a minimum but very suitable red suit holdings. What are your thoughts, would you like to be in 7 if you were me?

I was very happy with this dummy and my contract. I thought Boyd and Robinson would play in 6, so we had a chance to pick up some much needed imps. There was still the matter of making this though.
I ruffed the club and played the jack of diamonds to the king (you never know) and led a diamond. RHO followed.

This was a very tough decision. Clearly RHO rated to have Qxx of diamonds given LHO's length in clubs, but if he did I would need a spade finesse as well. If diamonds were 2-2 I could simply pitch the spades from dummy and ruff a spade. I decided LHO would bid 3 with any hand that contained AK sixth. He could have 7, but not 7-4, and he could have the spade king. RHO also would not raise frequently with 3 from what I had seen. If LHO was 2326, 3226, 2227, 4126, or an unlikely 1426, I would need to go up. If he had 3316, 4216, 2416, 3217 or 2317 without the spade king I would need to hook. Overall, it looked like going up was the percentage play. Unfortunately RHO had Qxx of diamonds and the spade king. The rest of the match had some exciting deals but we never had much of a chance after this board.

The funny thing is, at the other table they were in four hearts! No one criticized my play, but my bidding came very much under attack. I contended that I had no way of knowing that a top pair would play in game, and that if I had made this the momentum would have been with us. I thought it was right to take a chance on a hand like this, and that bidding 6 was not the way to win the match. Even though this was a gamble, it was by no means a crazy contract. We ended up gaining 10 imps or so for the set, but losing the match. Our opponents went on to win the next day.

Reflecting on it, I still would like to be in 7 diamonds on this hand unless I knew my counterparts would be in game.