How To Read Your Opponents... Hesitations?

Bridge and poker have a lot of similarities, but they diverge wildly in rules about tempo. In poker anything goes, you can hesitate whenever you like and try to fool your opposition, but in bridge you can never purposely mislead your opponents by hesitating. However, you can take inference from the opponent's hesitations (but never from partner's). This gives you a huge advantage if you know how to filter through this information and figure out what it means.

Let's start with an easy one. The opponents bid 1-1-2(hesitation) uncontested. The opponents are intermediates. What does the opening bidder have?

He will almost always have a 3 card raise. The other possibility is something like a 4441 14 count that was thinking of jumping to 3. However, most intermediates would not think about jumping with the latter hand, and if they did think about it they would probably do it. With a hand like 3451 it would take them some time to raise since it might just be a 4-3 fit. If you are thinking of balancing, it's less likely to be right with the information you now have. It also is more likely to be right to lead a trump if the opponents get to 4.

How about this one, you open 1 and your LHO thinks for a while and passes at favorable vulnerability. What does LHO probably have?

It is very likely he has at least an opening bid with diamond length. If you end up declaring this information could be very useful. I once had a funny hand where after that start to the auction my partner responded 1, and with 6 mediocre diamonds I chose to rebid 1N. Sure enough LHO had 5 diamonds and 1N was much better than the normal 2.

The thing you have to do to figure out what type of hands your opponents have for their hesitations is ask yourself what kind of hands will have a problem. Maybe in the latter case your LHO was thinking of overcalling for instance, but at favorable vulnerability if he wanted to overcall he probably would have. All the hand types where he will have a problem are hands with long diamonds and a good hand.

The best, and most confusing, clues you will find from the tempo come from the play. It is important to remember in the play that very often the opponents will try to deceive you with their tempo even though they are not allowed to. That is fine though, we can still exploit their tendencies.

Suppose you have Qxxxx in your hand and AJT9x in dummy. You lead the queen, LHO fumbles and gives it a 2 second hesitation and plays low. You should 100 % go up with the ace. If LHO had Kx he would never be considering playing the king looking at all the high ones in dummy. He would play low smoothly with that. With xx he may be idiotic enough to think that hesitating and playing low will make us think he has the king. Don't fall for it.

Now, suppose you have xx opposite KJTx and your opponents are experienced players. You lead towards the KJTx, and LHO thinks for a noticeable amount of time and plays low. Without the ace he wouldn't think for a long time as you could call him on it, if he wanted to deceive you when he held the Q he would think for maybe 1 or 2 seconds at most. So he has the ace. Why would an experienced player think with the ace in a situation he's probably seen 1000 times? With just the ace he would play low quickly. In my experience, they always have the AQ in this scenario. They want you to know they have the ace so that you go up with the king. So play the jack and lead up again, that way you'll have 2 tricks available from the suit. Be careful though, if your opponents are very inexperienced, they may just have the ace and not know what to do.

What happens if the opponents deviate from their tempo by playing very FAST? I had an interesting scenario involving that recently. I was in 7N. In the end game I had a good heart in my hand, a losing club, and a small diamond. Dummy had the AQ of diamonds and a losing club. RHO was known to have the winning club. I led my good heart and pitched a club from dummy and RHO pitched an extremely quick diamond. Now I had to guess whether I had squeezed RHO or if the finesse was on. I judged that RHO would only pitch a diamond that fast because he had seen the squeeze coming and was scared if he pitched a diamond slowly I'd realize he must have the king. As a result, he pitched too fast to compensate. If RHO simply had 2 small diamonds he would have nothing to worry about and would pitch in his normal tempo, or even hesitate to try and mislead me. So I dropped his now stiff king and made my contract.

Another situation where they're playing fast is when they literally pull a card to play before you have called from dummy. This almost always means that they're going to follow suit and cannot beat any finesse you could take. So if you have KQTxx opposite Ax and play the ace and another one and RHO pulls their card and is about to play it before you have even played from dummy I would recommend finessing the ten.

I cannot go over every situation where a variation from normal tempo gives you information, there are simply too many of them. Don't ignore it though, try and logically figure out what their problem could be and take advantage of it!

Old Position, New Twist

One of my favorite bridge stories occurred at the San Antonio bridge club several years ago. I was playing a contract against a very sweet but completely clueless little old lady. I needed to play AT9 of clubs opposite Kxx for no losers so I stripped the hand and put her in to break the suit for me. Without a care in the world she put the queen of clubs on the table. Ordinarily, one should play for this to be from Qxx based on restricted choice (the defense must exit an honor or you have no chance to guess the suit). In this case however, I was confident that this lady had the QJx otherwise she would never exit with an honor. I played accordingly and went down! She had found the Q play from Qxx. When I congratulated her for her excellent play she had no idea what I was talking about. She found it to be nothing more than routine.

Aaron Haspel, as an unfortunate result of being a good friend of mine, has had to suffer through that sad story dozens of times. I'm sure it was on his mind when, playing against me, he wound up in 4 with these cards:

KQ53
K75
AQ6
842

AJ972
AT9
J52
Q9

In the auction I had made a takeout double of 1 on his left and then they had a free run. On the ace of clubs lead his RHO played the jack, and I continued with king and another club which he ruffed. I had shown up with the AK of clubs and had to have the king of diamonds for my bid. Aaron now saw that the best possible way home would be to strip everything but hearts and put me in with a diamond (seem familiar?). He started by drawing two rounds of trumps, everybody following. Now he finessed against the diamond king, cashed the ace, and exited with his last one. I was in with the king and produced...the queen of hearts! Putting yourself into Aaron's seat, what would you do now? Before immediately deciding to play for split honors based on the previous story, let's think about this a little deeper.

There is a key difference between the hand in my story and the one Aaron was playing. Here there is not restricted choice on the Q, assuming I am a good defender. As I have only shown up with AK, K and have followed to 2 spades, I know that declarer has already placed me with the Q for my bid. Accordingly, with QJ I MUST play the queen, otherwise Aaron will know that I still have it in my hand. This means it's not clear what the percentage play is in hearts. To figure it out we need to calculate the number of possible QJx(x) combinations and weigh it against the number of Qxx(x) combinations. If I have 3 hearts, there are 4 QJx's possible and 6 Qxx's possible. If I have 4 hearts there are 6 QJxx's possible and 4 Qxxx's possible! Based on the club and diamond cards played, Aaron felt that I was most likely to be 2344 or 2335 making it percentage to play for Qxx(x) if I would also always exit with the Q from that holding too. But would I?

We've established that I should clearly play the Q from QJx(x), but that is not so clear from Qxx(x). Remember, I'm not looking at the T or 9 in dummy. Therefore, if Aaron had started with ATx of hearts I could get out with a low one and guarantee a set. Only getting out with the queen would give away the contract. I would have to know that Aaron has AT9 specifically to know that it's right to exit with the Q. Amazingly, I should know just that. If he had had ATx of hearts his only shot at the contract would be to find me with the QJ of hearts, and exit with 3 rounds of hearts instead of 3 rounds of diamonds. If I did have the QJ of hearts, I would be forced to lead away from the K. For Aaron's line to make any sense, he must have AT9 specifically.

After weighing these considerations carefully, Aaron did play for split honors and was right. After I gave him kudos on his nice play, he told me that it was routine.

UPDATE: It has come to my attention that my math on the number of possible QJx(x) combinations was wrong. In fact, it was perfect if there were SIX missing hearts, but there are actually 7. Brilliant! This means there are more Qxx combinations than QJx which makes Aaron's play mathematically correct even if he could not read my shape.

The Lead's The Thing

As declarer, the clue that helps me figure out the hand the most is the opening lead. There is a wealth of reliable information available from it, especially when the opponents lead count (which is very common in North America). People rarely falsecard the lead because it is also the card that helps their partner figure out the hand the most, and presumably are trying to make the most effective lead possible. There are many leads that "everyone" makes, so when they don't you can take negative inferences as well. Here are a few common inferences to take that many people fail to think about:

Playing NT

• When the opponents lead from a 4 card suit, they will not have a 5 card unbid suit. The reason is simple; people generally lead from their longest unbid suit. There are a few exceptions, the most obvious being if they led from a sequence like KQJT. This inference, especially if there are no unbid suits, can help you guess the distribution very accurately.
• When an opponent leads from xxx, he is trying to make a passive lead. This generally means all of his other leads are "unsafe" and he will usually have honors in every suit. If you have to guess a side queen for instance, definitely finesse through this player. If you have bid 1 or more suits he probably has length in those suits.
• When an opponent leads from xx against an auction like 1N-3N then one of two things is happening. He either has nothing and is trying to hit his partner, or he has everything and is trying to be safe. You should be able to figure this out very early on.
• Many opponents will tend to lead majors on an auction like 1N-3N. If an opponent leads a 4 card minor against this auction, it's likely that he does not have a 4 card major.
• If an opponent leads Ace from what later turns out to be AKxxx(x), he thinks he has a side entry. If he leads low, he does not think he has a sure side entry. If you need to guess how to play the hand this inference can be useful.

Playing Suits

• If a player leads a stiff, he does not have a trump holding like Qxx, JTxx or Kx. Qx is unlikely. If you have to guess the queen of trumps after they led a stiff, hook through their partner.
• If you are off AK in a side suit and opening leader led a different suit, he does not have both the ace and the king. This can help you count the high cards in many cases.
• There are some auctions where a trump lead is automatic. For instance after a 2 diamond opener showing a 3 suiter with short diamonds and then a jump to 4 hearts people will almost always lead a trump. If they do not, they have some kind of vulnerable trump holding. This is true on all "auto trump lead" auctions.
• If a player leads an ace against a slam, he thinks he has another trick. This inference is much stronger at imps than MP (where they may be trying to hold you to 6). Tempo is an important factor here too, the quicker the ace lead the more likely the opponent is to have a side trick like the trump queen.
• If a player underleads an ace against a partscore or game, they had no other attractive lead. Play accordingly.
• If a player leads a trump when declarer has shown a second suit, opening leader probably holds a strong holding in that suit.
• A trump lead is often an attempt to be passive with honors in every other suit.
• If a player underleads an AK(QJ) at trick 1, they have a void and are trying to get partner to get in to give them a ruff.

I think you get the idea. Here are two example hands to help illustrate some of these clues.

Hand 1

A52
843
AJT2
J76

K83
K97
K984
AK4

You are in 3N on the auction 1N p 3N. You get the 2 of hearts lead to the Q and King. The opponents play 4th best. How do you tackle diamonds?

LHO has 4 hearts and RHO has 3. The rule of empty spaces makes RHO a 10:9 favorite to hold the queen of diamonds. However, there is a stronger clue. Remember that we are going to assume LHO has no other 5 card suit since he led from a 4 card suit. His possible shapes are 4423, 4432, 4441, 4414, 3433, 3442, 3424, 2443, 2434, 1444. With other 4 card suits, especially spades, he may have led that instead. It also appears he led from an unattractive holding like AJxx, but RHO could have AQx of hearts still. Overall 3433 is his most likely shape, but even if all shapes are equal there are 7 shapes where he has 3+ diamonds and only 3 where he has 1 or 2 diamonds. This makes finessing through LHO a strong favorite despite the rule of empty spaces.

Hand 2

K42
KJT3
A532
87

AJ983
Q9762
64
3

This comes from a national team game. The bidding may scare you, but north opened 1, south bid 1, north bid 2, and south jumped to 4. West thought for a long time and led a low heart. I put in the jack and RHO immediately played low. How do you play?

Clearly, LHO had underled his ace of hearts. He must have had a terrible hand to lead from because that is a very strange lead and not the slightest bit attractive. I decided that my LHO must have the queen of trumps. Accordingly, I won the queen of hearts in my hand and advanced the jack of spades. LHO shrugged and covered so I did not think he had QT doubleton and finessed the spade ten on the way back. LHO did have the Q6 of spades.

That was a spectacular hand, but not a very hard play to come up with if you are in tune with the vast information available from the opening lead.

Predictable People

Humans are creatures of habit. This shows up in bridge all the time, most notably when discarding from many small "useless" cards. For instance, if your shape is 2335 and you have to discard on the third round of spades and no pitch will cost, what would you choose to discard? Unless you are an exception to a very strong rule, you are going to discard a club.

Very often you will find the first discard an opponent makes will be from his five card or longer suit. Unless declarer or dummy also have five of this suit, it is almost always a safe discard. Similarly, your opponents will almost never discard from a four card suit first unless they are sure that declarer can't have four himself. It would be dangerous and may enable declarer to set up the suit when he otherwise wouldn't have been able to. A pitch from a 3 card suit or a 5 card suit would almost always be preferable.

How can you take advantage of this at the table? Well, recently I had K943 of clubs in dummy, and AQT in my hand. When I ran a side suit, RHO was forced to pitch on the third round and chose to pitch a club (looking at the 4 clubs in dummy). I found this to be unusual as with three small he would worry about picking up his partner's queen if I had something like AJT, and he would also probably have a better pitch available. With 4 clubs he would be worried that the pitch might cost a trick. I had a strong opinion that RHO had just made a normal "lazy" pitch from his five card suit, so I cashed the ace and then led small to the ten. I was gratified when LHO showed out.

Another interesting pattern people have is pitching down to equal lengths in two suits whenver possible. For instance, in a 4 card ending with only small cards people are much more likely to come down to 2-2 than 3-1. I'm not sure why this is, but it happens very often. If you don't believe me, try watching what your opponents do or even what you do yourself. You might be surprised. It's not immediately clear how this knowledge will help you, but I once had a spectacular hand that I guessed correctly using this inference.

---
QJT87
QJT
KQJT6

QJ9
A3
A832
A972

RHO opens 2 and you overcall 2N. LHO bids 3, and partner raises you to 3N which is pretty ludicrous but there's nothing you can do about it now. You have to make 3N.

LHO leads a spade to his partner's ace, and RHO plays a spade to LHO's king. A spade comes back and you win the queen, having pitched 3 hearts from dummy. You know your opponents and they are not sophisticated enough to have given any suit preference signals with their spades so there is no inference there. When you run the clubs RHO pitches a low heart, a low diamond, and a spade. LHO pitches 2 low hearts followed by a low diamond. We have 8 tricks and need to guess which suit to finesse in order to make our contract.

If LHO has both kings we are doomed, and if RHO has both then we are cold. So we assume the kings are split. RHO probably would not stiff his king, even though it's free that would be very deceptive and would violate another pattern people have; keeping guarded honors unless they have to unguard them. So we can assume RHO is 6232 or 6322 and kept Kx in his 3 card suit and a stiff in his other suit. If RHO was 6322 that would give LHO 4342. Pitching 2 hearts and then a diamond would be very much against the pattern I described earlier. Much more likely is that he came down to 2-2 in the red suits. That would give him 4432, and RHO 6232. That means RHO started with the K, so you take the diamond finesse. When that works we have 10 tricks.

Had LHO pitched 2 diamonds and a heart he would have gotten me. Remember randomness in these situations is critical, so defy your human impulses and don't discard with auto-pilot on. Especially when you know you will have to make more than one pitch, figure out what ALL of them will be and throw your shorter suit first every now and then.