Squeezing The Dummy

Sunday, June 19, 2005

Midnight Tourney With Josh: Part 3

In Part 1 and Part 2 Josh and I had successfully gone eight boards in an ACBL tournament without a below average board. Our running average was at 75.37 % as we entered the home stretch. Unfortunately, in 12 board tournaments each board counts for quite a bit towards your total score so anything could still happen. After our customary 10 minute wait between rounds (we play too fast) we are ready to start.

Board 9: I pick up AK432 AJ9 6 AQ73. I open with 1 and get a raise to 2 from partner. I used to be the type to just bid 4 with this hand. I really love that auction for concealment purposes, but I found I just missed too many slams (especially if partner has a fit in my second suit). So, I bid 3 and partner retreated to 3. Now I have an easy 4 bid and am not worried about missing any slams. They lead the Q and dummy hits with J87 T6543K974 J. So much for slam, it looks like game will be difficult to make. I duck the diamond and when they continue with the jack I duck again and ruff in my hand. I have 2 heart losers, 1 spade loser, and a diamond loser off the top. That's not to mention the clubs I have to deal with. One possibility is trying to sneak a club to the jack so I can double finesse hearts while ruffing 2 clubs. If they do win the K I will be down off the top, possibly 2. The answer on this hand is to count winners, not losers. I have 1 club and 1 heart winner. If I can take eight trump tricks I will make my contract. I will need some good splits but I like this line. I am able to ruff 3 clubs in dummy and 3 diamonds in my hand while taking the ace of hearts along the way. I then have the AK of spades as my 9th and 10th tricks. This line was remarkably simple but is relatively hard to spot for most people.

Result: 84.78 %
Running Average: 76.42 %

Board 10: I pick up this lovely collection: 98632 982 -- 87642. I know, I can't complain, I've been hit with the deck this whole tournament. LHO opens 1 and partner overcalls 1N. I have an easy bid of 2 which is a transfer to spades. LHO has not said his piece and is there with 3. Partner bids 3 which ends the auction. He receives a diamond lead and his hand is QJT5 KQ3 AQ32 A3. Wow, what a great hand. Perhaps in this auction a 3 bid should show a maximum with 4 trumps, and 3 should just be competitive. On a diamond lead partner plays carefully and just loses 1 club, 1 heart, and 2 spades. He never touched trumps until the very end.

Result: 84.78 %
Running Average: 77.25 %

Board 11: I pick up Q854 82 KT976 Q9. Partner opens 1 and RHO makes a takeout X. Josh and I play transfers here starting with a 1N bid. Most top players are playing this treatment lately and I highly recommend it. Anyways, I can bid 2 showing a constructive raise or 2 showing either diamonds or a diamond lead directional raise. I could also bid 3, a fit jump. A fit jump shows an invitational hand so I reject that bid. If the Q had been in diamonds I would like the fit jump. 2 looks superficially best but I am worried about never being able to show the 4th trump. If I bid 2 and then 3 later in competition partner will have no inference about my 4th trump. I choose 2 to show the constructive raise and LHO doubles. This is the downside of transfers here. If I had been able to bid 2 LHO could not double to show hearts. Partner bids 2 showing no game interest and RHO competes to 3. I bid 3 with 4 trumps and a side 5 card suit which is passed around to RHO. He surprises everyone by doubling, ending the auction. We are not vulnerable so even down 1 should be ok. Partner actually has a great hand in context; AKT93 76 A8 J874. Diamonds are 3-3 and spades are 2-2 so partner has no trouble making this, losing 2 hearts and 2 clubs.

Result: 100.00 %
Running Average: 79.32 %

Board 12: Wow, last board and we have a shot for a rare 80 % game. I am dealt T A7 872 AKT9842. I open 1 and partner responds 1. 3 could work out very well if clubs run, but I opt for a simple 2 rebid. Partner bids 2, natural and non forcing. I have exceptional clubs so I bid 3 ending the auction. A heart is led and dummy is KJ963 K864 K63 6. This is not a typical dummy for this auction, but I agree with Josh's bidding. I win the heart lead in my hand and immediately lead a spade. When they duck, I infer from the lack of diamond lead on this auction that the opening leader had the ace of that suit. Also, he may have flown with the ace of spades if he had it. With only these two minor clues to go on, I let my ten ride and it loses to the queen. I win the heart return in dummy and lead the spade king, pitching a diamond when they play small. This loses to the ace, ouch! They cash the ace of diamonds and eventually get a club, so I am held to three. The diamond ace was onside as I had thought. Many on this hand actually bid and made 3N, and many in 3 made an overtrick.

Result: 26.09 %
Final Average: 74.88 %

So, we ended up right around 75 %. Not bad, although the last board was a disappointing way to finish. We took a lot of risks, got lucky a few times and got all the cards. These things on top of playing well can lead to huge games, as evidenced by this tournament. A lot of the decisions made in the bidding would probably have been different in a two-session event. I think in a half-session event (12 boards) the risks taken were very reasonable even if they do not always work out. We actually won by 12 % so even if something had gone wrong we would still have been able to hold on.

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14 Comments:

  • Justin - nice to see that you have a blog!

    Good luck with it. I have always wanted to start a bridge one (I have an all purpose one) - but, when I find the time, maybe ....

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6/19/05, 3:51 PM  

  • Yeah there should be more bridge blogs. Poker blogs have really taken off.

    By Blogger Justin Lall, at 6/19/05, 9:56 PM  

  • Not even a respectable 75%, lame.
    --Pimp

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6/19/05, 10:57 PM  

  • Nice session.

    One comment about board 11. I think it is a system shortcoming to be forced to make a bid below the 3-level on a hand like this one. I'd rather be able to bid 3S to show this hand type (presumably you rejected 3S because the hand was too strong) or reduce the requirements for the fit-showing jumps or define one of the jump calls as showing the 4-card mixed raise.

    At IMPs, An immediate 3S gives you a chance to win a double part-score swing--you have enough values to provide play for your contract and the opponents could easily be making 3C or 3H (or more). When a 3S call shows something like this: Qxxx, xx, xxx, xxxx, then you rate to go minus whether the opponents choose to bid on or to defend, which provides a much smaller upside.

    At MPs, the situation is closer.


    Andrew

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6/21/05, 10:20 AM  

  • I agree, we should probably have some 4 card mixed raise.

    By Blogger Justin Lall, at 6/21/05, 10:59 AM  

  • Isn't the fact that the opponents were unable to accurately gauge our eagerness to bid to the 3 level what got us a 100% board? I am not the least bit bothered to be unable to bid at the 3 level on what is most likely our hand, people get so fixated on that for some reason. Lots of the time they would have just let you play 2 since they don't know your trump length, so why should your system force you to get higher and go minus? When you hold a 2 count you rate to go minus no matter what you do, so your comment about the lack of upside seems invalid to me.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6/21/05, 12:33 PM  

  • The mixed raise would be an option not a requirement so you would be free to reject it on hands that were less offensive, despite having 4-card support. And personally, I do reject it a lot when my side's fit is in spades.

    However, when the auction begins 1M-X-? and you are dealt: x, QTxx, Axxx, xxxx not bidding to the 3-level right away is asking for trouble.


    re: Very weak preemptive raises
    The problem is that you take a risk of being doubled in exchange for a low possibility of gain. Yes by passing you also rate to go minus, but you wont cause a disaster and on a good day partner has enough defense to beat whatever they bid.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6/21/05, 6:13 PM  

  • I remain firmly unconvinced. It seems to me all the arguments in favor of such bidding is cliche (not bidding to the 3 level is asking for trouble, law of total tricks, make the opponents guess) whereas the arguments the other way are based on logic. I still see no reason to bid higher than the 2 level until we have to! We have half the deck, so it is quite rare we will ever give them information to profitably bid to the 4 level. As for the disdain for weak preemptive raises, you have to be joking about the risk of being doubled? No one plays 1S X 3S X as penalty, and if they did that would make such a bid even more profitable. I don't believe I can ever recall that auction being followed by 3 passes. The real gain is when it goes 1S X 3S 4H and partner can profitably sacrifice, something neither player may be able to do after 1S X 2S 4H.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6/21/05, 7:34 PM  

  • Maybe the arguments are not well articulated, but there is a real basis.

    Take my example hand x, QTxx, Axxx, xxxx) and the auction begins: 1H-X-? to you, the following facts can be inferred:

    1. The opponents have an 8+ card spade fit

    2. On average, the opponents will have half the deck, and by extension

    2a. The opponents therefore rate to make at least 2S

    3. Your hand is easily worth competing to 3H over 2S.

    So why would you make a call at the 2-level? A direct 3H may freeze RHO out or cause him to overbid.

    I agree that some authors carry the idea too far. It is silly to drive to the 3-level on 4-3-3-3 shape and I don't like constructive raises which have you do it before you know that the opponents want to compete.

    But when an opponent has advertised a desire to compete with a TO double then you are ignoring a big red flag if you dont take immediate aggressive action with a fit.


    re: weak preemptive raises
    1S-X-3S-X (responsive) can get passed out.

    Sacrifices in general are not big IMP winners. Unless you are white on red, you will need to take 9 tricks in spades for your preempt to show a large profit. And if partner's hand can take nine tricks opposite a piece of fluff like Qxxx, xx, xxxx, xxx he will often bid again after your initial pass. So passing on this type of hand does not surrender many opportunities for a significant pickup.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6/22/05, 4:16 PM  

  • Your example hand has very little to do with the actual hand of Kxxx xx KT9xx Qx. This hand has spades not hearts, and had a doubleton in their suit not a singleton, and had a 7 count not 6. In other words, there is far less reason to rush the auction than on the x QTxx Axxx xxxx hand you made up. I never said I would bid 3S on the pile of crap hand you made up Qxxx xx xxxx xxx, but there are certainly weaker inbetween hands. The actual hand minus the diamond king is perfect.

    "re: weak preemptive raises
    1S-X-3S-X (responsive) can get passed out."

    Are you sure? When was the last time you made a takeout double with a trump stack? We are not vul, how confident can the takeout doubler be of setting us two, since 100 instead of 50 probably does him no good? If we were vul this concern would be more valid, but against that the preemptive raise is made on a better hand when vul. It's not that relevant though, its all but impossible to double a bid and a raise in a partscore without trumps.

    You are forgetting a couple things about sacrificing on an auction like 1S X 3S 4H 4S. One is that they occasionally forget to double, laugh all you want but it happens. Another is I don't know where you get 9 tricks from, but 8 tricks will get you a big matchpoint score when they have game (in fact, even a better score than 9 tricks sometimes since fewer pairs will sacrifice.) But the most important thing is they will often bid one more.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6/23/05, 1:02 PM  

  • Oops, 8 not 7, but that only makes my argument more true.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6/23/05, 1:03 PM  

  • Qxxx of spades, 7 not 8....sorry justin im done blog clogging.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6/23/05, 1:04 PM  

  • Jdiddy:
    Your example hand has very little to do with the actual hand of Kxxx xx KT9xx Qx. This hand has spades not hearts, and had a doubleton in their suit not a singleton, and had a 7 count not 6. In other words, there is far less reason to rush the auction than on the x QTxx Axxx xxxx hand you made up.

    Andrew:
    I agree. My hand was a rhetorical device to make the point that hands exist which are "too strong" for a preemptive raise as most define it but are clearly best bid by driving to the 3-level immediately. Whether or not one believes the actual hand falls into that category is a matter of judgment and personal bidding style.

    ***************************

    Andrew:
    "re: weak preemptive raises
    1S-X-3S-X (responsive) can get passed out."

    JDiddy:
    Are you sure? When was the last time you made a takeout double with a trump stack?

    Andrew:
    Yes I am sure. As I play it, the responsive double shows values. Doubler can and should pass it with a featureless TO double like: * xxx, AKxx, AQx, Jxx
    * AQ, Axxx, Kxx, xxxx

    J diddy:
    We are not vul, how confident can the takeout doubler be of setting us two, since 100 instead of 50 probably does him no good?


    Andrew:
    If a plus score looks uncertain by bidding on, then passing is often best.

    Jdiddy
    If we were vul this concern would be more valid, but against that the preemptive raise is made on a better hand when vul. It's not that relevant though, its all but impossible to double a bid and a raise in a partscore without trumps.

    Andrew:
    I would quibble a bit, while agreeing with your main point. If responsive doubler might hold: x, xx, QJxxx, KJxxx then passing the double becomes essentially impossible. However, if the responsive double shows values--in this case about 10 HCP--and denies extreme shape then the TO doubler can occasionally take a shot at 3S with a featureless hand. Even if responsive x shows values, it wont be passed for penalty often. However, when it is passed, opener is likely to go down at least a couple, and IMPS is much more concerned protecting against these unlikely edge cases than matchpoints is.

    ***************************

    Jdiddy:
    You are forgetting a couple things about sacrificing on an auction like 1S X 3S 4H 4S. One is that they occasionally forget to double, laugh all you want but it happens. Another is I don't know where you get 9 tricks from, but 8 tricks will get you a big matchpoint score when they have game...

    Andrew:
    My arguments are all based on an IMP assumption. At matchpoints, the case for more aggressive preemption for the reason you state.

    ****************

    As a general observation, I'd say that when playing IMPs or rubber bridge, most young players preempt too often and interfere too aggressively. I count myself as having been among them, and a few would say that I still fall into that category.

    The nature of IMPs is that over-aggression is not punished often. As a result, learning from experience tends to be slow, especially when your competition is not top notch. But the truth is that those "unlucky" numbers over the long run do add up to kill you.


    Andrew

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6/28/05, 4:11 PM  

  • By Blogger Unknown, at 11/17/16, 3:10 AM  

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